# What is P10 P50 P90?

## What is P10 P50 P90?

P50 is defined as 50% of estimates exceed the P50 estimate (and by definition, 50% of estimates are less than the P50 estimate). P90 and P10 are low and high estimates respectively. P90 means 90% of the estimates exceed the P90 estimate.

What is P10 estimate?

There should be at least a 10% probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.

What is the difference between P50 and P90?

P50 means there is a 50% chance in any given year that production will be at least a specific amount. P90 production means that there is a 90% chance that in any given year production will be at least the specific amount. This means that there is only a 10% chance that production will be lower then the stated amount.

### Is P10 better than P90?

In the oil and gas industry, P90 should be at least a 90% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate; P50 should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate; P10 should be at least a 10% probability that the …

What is a P50 risk?

P50 is essentially a statistical level of confidence suggesting that we expect that the predicted solar resource/energy yield may be exceeded with 50% probability. This also means that with at same probability the expectation may not be achieved. P50 level of confidence may represent too high risk for some investors.

What is the 10th percentile?

For example, if a 4-year-old boy’s weight is in the 10th percentile, that means that 10% of boys that age weigh less than he does and 90% of boys that age weigh more. Being in a high or a low percentile doesn’t necessarily mean that a child is healthier or has a growth or weight problem.

#### What is better P50 or P90?

P50 is the most probable value, also called best estimate, and it can be exceeded with 50% probability. P90 is to be exceeded with 90% probability, and it is considered as a conservative estimate.

What does P50 estimate mean?

P50 – P50 represents the project cost with sufficient funding to provide a 50% level of confidence in the outcome; there is a 50% likelihood that the final project cost will not exceed the funding provided.

Is median equal to P50?

For an odd number of data, the median is the middle value once sorted (nickname: P50). P50 is not the probability at the 50th percentile. The Excel function is “MEDIAN.” The median porosity is 0.120.

## What is a P50 budget?

For instance, a P50 cost is the Project cost with sufficient contingency to provide 50 per cent likelihood that this cost would not be exceeded. A P90 cost is the Project cost with sufficient contingency to provide 90 per cent likelihood that this cost would not be exceeded.

What are the cumulative probabilities for P50 P90?

Cumulative probabilities: P10 P50 P90 A given case might give a P90 oil recovery and a P10 gas recovery. In general there will be no realization that gives P90 results for more than one variable.

How can I find percentile P10, P90 for normal distribution?

Notes:In R, qnormis the ‘inverse Cumulative Distribution Function’ (inverse CDF), which is sometimes called the ‘quantile function’. If you have a statistical calculator, maybe you can figure out how to get percentiles from it.

### How to calculate the uncertainty of the P90 distribution?

Simplified assumption of the normal distribution, the uncertainty at P90 can be calculated simply by multiplying standard deviation by 1.282, resulting in a slightly higher number calculated from the same cumulative probability curve (Figure 4).

Are there any meaningful P10, p50, or PX results?

There are only meaningful P10, P50, or Px results that must be determined from probabilistic analysis. Any valid question in reservoir modeling, regardless of the model used, must be asked to some number of cases, representing many combinations of the uncertainties, in order to obtain a probabilistic distribution of the answer.